Disillusioned

I’m finding myself becoming very disillusioned with poker this year. It’s been hanging over me like a black cloud the last few months to be honest, but it seems to be growing into thunder clouds of epic proportions. It started to look a bit brighter with my recent SNG run, but that has proven to be a minor blip.

Reading a few blogs, it seems the RNG is being very unkind to many players at the moment, and with me it’s got to the point of thinking about whether to continue. Hands win, hands lose, I know these things happen, and I know the odds. Trouble is odds aren’t meaning a great deal right now.
For example: in the space of 5 hands at one 50c BB NL table, I get dealt KK twice. 6 x bb raise is called by the same player, holding the same hand 9 7. The flop on both hands is 9 high. I bet it hard, he pushes and I call. River is a 7.
Twice in 5 hands.

Over the 8 sessions I’ve played this week, I have lost 58% of hands where I am 80% or greater to win. Go figure?
What is going on at the moment? I read Yorkshire Puds blog and his very funny letter to Joker Stars. Then I read Cell’s blog and he is going through the same thing. People left comments about going back to basics. How is the above KK hand played wrong? I had a good read on the player (he was awful, but winning) and these reads were proven to be correct both times. What am I doing wrong?

Cell mentions getting AA, raising and hitting another on the flop – but still coming 3rd in a 3 horse race. What can you do? He raised pre flop, and got three callers and flopped a set. Crucial hands are going the way of the poor judgment way too often right now. My good SNG run saw 80%+ of my 80%+ hands won, as the odds depict. To try and even the balance, I tried to find a similar run of hands where I was 20% or less favourite to win, and won 53% + - but I can't find one.

So, let’s say you can see all the cards dealt. You raise with AA and flop another. Knowing that one player has 4 to a flush draw, and the other has an open str8 draw – what’s the correct move here, a) you are first to act and b) you are last to act?

A) Would you get your money in? To hit a full house, you have 6 outs by the river (7 if you count the case A left for quads) assuming the turn is not duplicated by the cards seen. This would negate their hands even if they hit – but it is enough? One has 6-8 outs, the other has up to 9 (assuming no outs folded or held). No one hits an out, and you win.
B) Someone puts you all in – is it right to call? Even knowing what your opponents hold – I think a call is the right decision.

Interested to hear your thoughts.

I think with the KK v 97 – and you could also see his cards - you would call 100% of the times – so therefore you have no control over the profit/loss, it is down to the poker sites RNG. Just seems to be way too many dogs winning races this year.

I’ve pulled my hand history and looked over it, and can’t see a huge amount of leaks if I’m honest – most of my losses come from premium hands, (flopped sets, str8s, two pair) where I am a good favourite, but lose to limited outs – so I feel I’m making the right decisions.

On a positive note, I qualified via a freeroll to the £5k guaranteed on Ipoker network at 9pm this evening, currently there are 450 runners, so there was a glimmer of a smile in the week.

Even tried my hand at Omaha and managed to lose my first two hands despite flopping full houses, but then hit quads twice to claw it back.

I have to admit to one thing. I stupidly sat down at my first Omaha table without a proper understanding of the rules. Believing the game was about the best hand made from all cards, rather than two from the pocket and 3 from the table. Imagine my (misguided) delight when dealt 4 clubs and seeing a 5th hit the flop – I thought I had the nuts and could not believe when I lost the hand. Idiot L

Anway, smile on my face, onwards and upwards and remember – my pen is mightier than the sword (Thanks Mr Edge).