Variance and Swings

Coping with the ups and downs of poker can be tough at the best of times, the last week has been one of my most 'roller coaster' times I can remember. After the good run I had in December and first bit of January, I suppose a bad run has to be expected, but I managed to keep things to a minumum.
Then, last week, a string of bad beats had a very depressing effect on my bankroll, before a string of fortunate cards have me back on the winning trail and January is back in the plus. I'm playing at Celebrity Poker, and there is very little folding done here. I've made the move up to $1 (100$ buy in) No Limit, and the bad beats hurt a lot more at this level. The standard isn't that much better either. Regularly, all 5 at the table will call my 5 or 6 x bb raise, so the strong hands have even less chance of holding up than usual (add to this the most astounding % rate of flopped sets I have seen). And, because there are so many callers, everyone hits something every hand (a conspiracy theorists dream, this place) so it's really tough trying to get a read and know if you are ahead.
But I look at the graph of my play the last two weeks and it is up and down more than a whore's knickers.
I can't take the variance and nerve racking calls so am moving back to 50c (50$) and build my BR back up (hopefully). Once the bonus has cleared, I'm moving away to my next target.

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Funny reading Cloud's blog about his little girl and the 'bath' comments - Mia has just discovered the phrase 'What's this for?' and is running around the house picking up anything she can, running over and saying 'Daddy, what is this for?'
The only trouble is, she doesn't understand my answers - 'it transmits an infra-red signal through the airways, which is picked up by the remote sensor in the visual display unit, enabling us to move programmes without getting up from the comfortable sofa.'
Blank look.
Pause for 3 seconds
'Daddy, what's this for?'

Anyway, speaking of swings, hope this weather calms down a bit and we can head for the park tomorrow. Took me 2 hours to get home from work on Thursday (usually 20mins), though at least I got home safely, as I know some weren't so fortunate.

Looking forward to the Man U v Arsenal game tomorrow, especially after Chelsea losing to the scousers today. The game doesn't have the pre-match battle between Fergie and Wenger that is usally so entertaining (probably as Arsenal aren't the threat they used to be), so doubt it will be the highly charged game it was. Keane v Viera was always a great battle on the pitch, and off it sometimes, and I have some great memories of going to Old Trafford and Highbury and watching those two great players.
I'm going for a narrow Man U win.

Skill? Not A Chance.

Apparantly, the game of poker is more about skill than just luck according to the many players I talk to and books I read about the game (written by players, in the main). So a case is currently hearing in London as they decide whether a gambling den needed a license to operate. If the game is mostly about luck, it is gambling and therefore needs to be licensed. If the game is made up of a skill factor, then it is not gambling and therefore, no license is needed (this was roughly the gist of the piece on the news). This den never got a license and I am watching very intently to see how the court decide.

Obviosuly if this was online, there would not be a shadow of a doubt. Anyone playing the lower levels of online poker will know there is not a cat in hells chance of this standing up in court. Skill? Where?
Any average online player (like me) would only have to show their hand history and the evidence is plain and clear. People are happy to put all their money in a pot with A3, knowing they are probably way behind (unless they are even more stupid than I think), but happy to take their chance that they may hit a couple of 3's or maybe 2 pair. It means not a jot that you hold AK or a high pair as online, essentially, every hand is a coin flip.
Mr (or Mrs) A3 will think, it happens, why not this time? I've blogged previously about the fact that AK or AQ can rarely stand up against hands like A3, and another 5000 hands in Poker Office show this stat to be very true.
So how can we, as players of online poker, justify how skilful we are? Getting your opponent to call your massive re-raise when he only holds KQ to your AA? Then, getting him to commit the rest of his chips on a Q high flop, still thinking he has the best hand despite your huge bet? If so, I am one of the most skilful players online, as I have managed to force my opponents in exactly these situations on seven occasions so far this week. Unfortuantely, the most skilful does not make me the most richest as the K or another Q hit the river every time and saved the luckier player against the more skilful. I could throw you several dozen more examples, but no one wants to hear them, they happen to us all. At the end of the day, my hard earned profits from January were erradicated in a dozen hands of incredibly unlikely hands hitting their incredibly unlikely outs.

I try to make the right decisions at all times, and think I succeed most of the time. Having said this, even when I make the right decisions, it is still in the lap of lady luck as to whether I win or lose. Also, when I make the worng decisions, I may get paid. So where's the skill? OK, making the right decisions in the long run will make me a more profitable player than not. But it does not take away the fact the over riding reasons between winning that hand and losing it, is luck and nothing else.

I await the results of this court case and will be very interested to hear how they decide, in the meantime 'good luck' at the tables.