Need A Chuckle?

Well, well, well, seems the poker conspiracy theories are a lot bigger and more outragous than even I imagined!

We are having our loft done today - lots more storage space to put the stuff in, that you seem to accumulate when you have children. Mia's only 2, dread to think how much stuff they will be when she get's to 5! So I'm sat in the living room with laptop on knee and playing a bit of poker.

And boy, have I found a cracking table this morning! I've had a few 'way in front to way behind' hands mind, but how quickly they are forgotton when the fish don't hit their flush on the river, but have called your ridiculous bets to get there. And not just once or twice mind - I was 100$ up when decided that I had used up more than my fair share of good fortune, and surely they were gonna start hitting them soon, so left them to it more than happy.

Whilst I was playing, I was browsing the internet looking at various poker discussion sites to pick up a few tips and advice, when I stumbled upon www.pokerconduct.com.
Having never seen a website like this before I thought I would have a read - and how funny is this? Basically, it's a 'Online Poker is Fixed' website, where players can post their bad beat stories and complain about how it is fixed. Apparantly you will always lose when you cash out, and always win when you register as a new player.

Now I have often questioned things that have happened to me, that seem to be outragously un-random, but surely these miraculous bad beats will happen when you look at the amount of hands being played. I have a moan and move on. These guys are making a business out of it!

(click on breaking news, then scroll down to hollywood poker to see what I'm on about)

The one that really tickled me was the 'Ace of Spades dealt twice in one hand' story that has alledegly happened on Hollywood Poker. Player has AQ spades and flop is Ac 6c Qh, turn is another As, followed by 3c. Something obviously fishy - 2 x A spades in one hand?

Now, I'm no computer expert, but one thing jumped out at me instantly that this cannot be genuine. Look at the Hand History box in the bottom corner - where are the turn, bets and river cards recorded - as they usually are in this box? Note that the scroll bar is already at the bottom, so no notes are below.
They lead with this on their home page, so I guess they are not poker experts or players, or would surely have noticed this and at least questioned it.

Maybe it did happen, can computer programmes make 'mistakes' or misinterpret information and display the wrong card. I don't know, but this made me chuckle so I thought I would share it with you.

Enjoy the pages!

AK/AQ v Ax

It's getting bad out there guys. I can't remember seeing so many big hands together, so often.
Not whining, just making an observation. Maybe I watch the hands more often than I used to. In the last two days, I've seen so many AA v KK, QQ v KK etc confrontations - fortunately, most of them haven't involved me so I'm still singing.

Anyway, on to the topic of my blog. This weeks poker is running about even, was down about 100$ at one point, but have managed to claw it back to level. And, after reading my hand history, I can put most of my losses down to two hands. AK and AQ (sooted or otherwise). So, time to think this one out as most of the losses are when I flop top pair with them.

My trouble is, they keep losing to A5 or other such weaker hands with alarming regularity. How does that work? Lee Jones describes the flop of A 7 2 'your flop and bet at it accordingly' when holding AK or AQ. So why do I keep running into A7 or A2? Yes, I know why, because people play A2 and A7 like I play AK or AQ.

What I want to do is not moan about it - but learn how I can play it better and not lose more than I have to.

So, you raise with AK / AQ and hit an A on the flop along with two low cards - how do you get away from it? Assuming there is no obvious flush or str8 draw, you bet it hard and get a caller. Do you then slow down, or keep betting it hard with the belief that you have the best hand? I know it's gonna be hard to get away from it, especially if your opponent doesn't re-raise. (A flop of A J 7 lost me a few $ last night, and my opponent never raised with his A7 - afterwards, he said he was worried about AJ). The fish never like to fold an Ace with any kicker, so it's hard to put them on something.

Later on, a couple of players comment on me checking the river with AK and A on the flop as one guy kept calling my bets (at PL level). I was nervous that a player stayed in, and he turned over pocket K's so I won, and my reply was I was worried about 2 pair.

So, for now, I keep playing them strong and try not to be afraid of the monsters under the bed, but interested in your thoughts / comments if you have any advice.

Incidentally, I saw a hand in a SNG last night where 4 players were dealt AA, KK, QQ, JJ (AA won) , which I've never seen before, and I was happy as 3 got knocked out in one go :-)

Toodle Pip all.

Footnote:
Oops, just had a monster hand - my A6s call (to no raise) saw a flop of A K 6 and there was a lot of betting and raising between me and one other player. River see's a 6 and I hit full house to his AK - guess it works both ways :-)

Balance now +70$ for the week, looks like Mia will get clean nappies this week after all.

Cup of Tea anyone?

Absolutley no bad beat stories today. Not one. Nada. Nothing.

But I had 3 Aces!! Stop right now thank you very much. God bless the Spice Girls eh? Always there when you need a distraction (I still know all the moves to that song thanks to my little niece).

And I really need a distraction at the moment. Is it possible to suffer from Poker apathy?

I really love playing the game, but sometimes I just can't be arsed and the last few days have seen so much rain where I live, that there's not a lot else to do when the missus is watching Coronation Farm or Emmerdale Street or Hollyhocks and all that other trash that seems to be there everytime I turn the telly on, depicting the 'real life' of our country's residents. (Funny analogy there between live and online poker.....)

'Let's watch a fascinating programme on the sex lives of the rare Mo-Mo monkeys of the Amazon, it's just about to start on the National Geographic Channel' I say. 'Or, there is one of those 'How Did They All Survive That Plane Crash' documentaries that I find worryingly compulsive, also on in a minute'.
'How would you like to wear that televsion' she replies, and puts the soaps back on. 'But they're not real' I say, 'none of life's problems are ever resolved by sitting down in Emily's front room with a cup of tea. Why does everyone have their christening, 18th, 21st, engagement, wedding, pregnancy, leaving do, new job do, divorce, funeral and any other celebratory point in their lives all in the same pub?' It just doesn't happen (I hope).

But can I persuade her otherwise? No. Even more worrying, Mia tends to stop her personal attempt at the land speed record around the front room as soon as the Du Du Du of Eastenders theme tune starts, and stares transfixed at the screen until it finishes, before carrying on until she hits something and adds another bruise to the collection. I stand in the background crying 'see what you've done to our daughter!!'

So, I found my way begrudgingly to the tables and played a few SNG and cash games. It all started well, winning a 3-table SNG, beating a guy who had just qualified for the WSOP into first place (I was chuffed with that!) . Then took my winnings to the cash tables and saw the same old thing - my heart just wasn't in it and I played accordingly.

So before I lost all my winnings, I shut down and did a bit of a review on my poker year so far. Checking all my poker accounts, I worked out my starting balances at the beginning of the year, and what I am at now. I have a seperate credit card I use for poker transactions, to keep it nice and easy to see where I am at. We took out £700 to get the loft done (notice the 'we', like I had any say in it at all!) so the account stands at £427 in credit (£1127 without the withdrawal).

Not a bad year then, but this was nearly £300 higher two weeks ago, which shows how your bankroll can suffer after a week of spectacular bads beats (oops, wasn't supposed to mention those). Has anything changed in these 2 weeks? Probably, but let's save that for another post - I'm feeling happy today.

Sat down this morning to a 10 seater SNG and after folding the first few hands, realised it was a fixed limit game, as I tried to raise my AK. God, it was boring. Who plays tournaments at Fixed Limit anyway? Maybe it's for youngsters like Mia? Maybe you can have a cup of tea in Emily's front room and still play? I managed to sneak 2nd place so made a 10$ profit, but I have never played a more frustrating game in my life! I only got so far because I tried to (slowly) throw my chips away early on and hit a few lucky catches and then was chip leader so played properly.

Changing subject with no apparent link, the weather forecast for the week and weekend is very good, and I'm at a friends all-day party/BBQ for his son's 2nd birthday (last year was a good day, from what I remember) on Saturday, so no poker this weekend.

Enjoy your week and your poker, and remember, if you're not enjoying it - there's a soap starting on at least one of your TV channels right now. Tonight offers a very special epsiode; Jimmy's funeral and Tracey's Wedding both being held in the pub - if you can tear yourself away from that cup of tea.

Where is Hannibal When You Need Him?

Integrity online - something I've never been 100% convinced of, and whilst I continue playing, I'm very cautious to try and not over committ financially and leave myself in the position of a recent work colleague of mine. Not through poker mind, his was horses. The losses he incurred caused him to borrow money from people that charge interest rates akin to the number of times 'Rooney' and 'Foot' are mentioned in the tabloids. His wins stopped and the losses mounted and he began to pay for his losses by fiddling at work.

He was caught, of course, has now lost his job, his family life and has had to move out of the area to try and escape the people he owes money to. A sad situation and a shock to those that knew him, however little.

Anyway, back to my main point and time to be controversial. These pages are not just about what we do on the tables, but also our thoughts and feelings related. As I said, I've never been 100% sure of any poker sites integrity, and I gave up believeing it was 'random' a long time ago.

Now before you start thinking, uh oh, here's another nutter that thinks the system is rigged, pause. I do not think that at all. If that were so, I would be working for one of them, finding out for sure and then blackmailing them mercilessly. It's just a totally different 'random' that exists in any real live card game, for a variety of reasons.

I have been making a few (actually, a lot) of notes and saving my hand history and viewing it from time to time as a whole to see any patterns or to learn from it. Then, last night, I experienced something that has me puzzled. I backed off the tables and viewed my hand history (now over 50k hands in it from variuos sites) and spent a little time thinking about it (maybe this was my mistake). So before I voice my thoughts, let's go through the hand.

I'm on a 50c NL table for about 20 minutes, with 5 other fairly solid players. One in particular has been steadily building his pot by about 25$ in the time I was there, and I never saw him lose a showdown (the hand history proves this to be correct). I'm in mid position when I get dealt AA. I rasie to 5$ and all fold except the above mentioned player on the BB who re-raises to 10$. This is now expensive for me and AA does tend to lose more than it wins online at the lower levels, so I just call.
The flop is rainbow A 10 7 so I bet 10$. My opponent re-raises me to put me all in for my remaining 34$ which I call after thinking, what the hell can he have. Pocket 10's or 7's? He turns over 5 6 suited.

A few players instantly 'lol' and 'amazing' as the turn shows an 8. Then after that momentary pause that seems a lot longer, the river is a 4. He has hit a straight.
Imagine your feelings as that river cards flips over. 60$ of my money has gone to a call that can only be described as incredible. Incredibly stupid? Incredibly lucky obviously, or just incredibly incredible. Or was it?

Think through your experience of playing poker online. We've all played against players that are so bad we clean them out fairly quickly. These players have usually matched lowest pair, or top pair with average kicker and refuse to believe that you have hit your straight or flush. Or they keep calling with a gutshot or 4 to a flush, irrespective that the odds are not in their favour (and yes, occasionally they hit).
But have you ever seen a hand go like this? My pre-flop raise indicated I had a pretty decent hand, he'd been at the the table with me for at least 20 mins and this was the biggest raise I'd done. We all see players that refuse to fold 'sooted' cards, but a re-raise with such low cards (this was also his first re-raise pre-flop). On the flop, my bet of 10$, 20 x the BB, indicated I had a strong hand. Then he massively over-bets and raises to all in (he had 56$ in his pot at this stage)!! Surely my 10$ bet clearly showed I had something strong. Was he trying to steal the pot by representing the Ace, putting me on KK or QQ - again, surely my 10$ bet showed my strength. To hit the turn and river as he did were just amazing. Maybe he was also feeding the 5000 as he played, or perhaps he was walking over Lake Michigan with laptop in hand - it's that kind of miraculous (OK, maybe I'm exaggerating a little).

The main thought I couldn't shake was 'he knew what was coming'. Was this a real possibilty or was I just looking for a way to justify it to myself. I don't know and never will, but it doesn't stop me thinking that he did. I e-mailed the poker site with the hand history, asking them to look at his history but maybe that was just sour grapes on my part.

I closed my poker programmes and decided to look at my hand history as I've not done this for a while. A friend has written a pretty good excel spreadsheet that I can download my hands to (don't ask me how it works - I sell holidays!!) and it gives you some amazing statistical information. I now have 50k hands in this download, enough to say there is enough, and I'd like to share just 4 with you and see what you think.

The first one is the most amazing for me, something that sticks in the mind as happening so often, as well as noticing it in hands I'm not involved with. If you hold pocket pairs, you will lose to a player holding a lower pocket pair 52% of the time. That's more than 5 times out of every 10. Odds are around 25-30% depending on table size. (Most of the time I play on 6 seater tables.) This 52% is made up of the total hands won by lower pocket pairs, whether I was on the winning or losing end of it.

When I hold KK, there is an A on the table 82% of times. Can't find any odds or stats for this, but seems very high.

Next is the one lot's of players comment on when at the tables. There's a pair on the board, and someone always seems to have a third in their hand. The odds say, on a 10-seater table, that there is a 40% chance that someone holds a third. Just from memory I'd say that was rubbish - but it's in the poker books as well as my odds calculator - and sure enough, my download shows over 70% of times. Now, there are a lot of hands that are folded to a bet when a pair is on the board - and we don't know if the player had one or not. Even running a 40% calculation on these folded hands, and the % overall is still in the high 60's. I know we play a lot more hands, but odds are odds surely? Incidently, my download shows that 32% of the time, there are 2 players holding another and your kicker wins or loses it, and rarely would they be folded so a more accurate %.

Lastly, the flop is 7 7 7 and you hold the 4th (or any other 4 of a kind). Apparantly the odds are about once every 20k hands (give or take a few). I've had this 7 times in my 50k, and lost to it a further 5 times. Again, there are folds to a flop of trips, but even assuming all of these were semi-bluffs at least, I still have 13 occasions in 50k hands.

So what do we learn from these stats? Are 50k enough? Maybe I should just scrap them and forget that odds and probability exist as they seem to bear no resemblence online, as they do in the real world. Just play the hand in front of you, think only of what is releveant to the cards you see, and the cards you hold, and then as soon as the hand is finshed, forget it and move on the next. Maybe the sheer volume of hands mean it is a totally different kind of random, as I said earlier. Maybe online is the correct random, and we've been mistaken that the real world is random? Or, have I have missed the most obvious answer to all of this? I just don't know.

Or, as my favourite childhood programme used to say: if you have a problem that no-one else can solve, and you can find them, maybe you can hire The A Team?